Why the good news about avian flu does not mean we can let down our guard

Every spring, with the end of the migration season, animal health specialists ask the same question: how does the avian influenza virus circulate and what does that mean for poultry farms? The most recent report published by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Together with the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the European Union Reference Laboratory for Aviary Influenza, it confirms the continued downward trend in outbreaks observed at the end of winter and estimates that this evolution will continue throughout the summer. From February 28 to June 4, 2026, 949 detections of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) were reported in 30 European countries: 186 in domestic birds and 763 in wild birds. The number of outbreaks in farms remained at a similar level to that of last spring, and experts estimate that the epidemiological pressure will continue to decrease throughout the summer. At the same time, the risk assessment for the general population remains low. 

But In biosecurity, good news never means the end of the problem. The report shows that, during the same period, they were identified 763 cases in wild birds, This is more than three times as many as last spring. For epidemiologists, this is an important signal: the virus continues to circulate intensively in the natural environment, especially among waterfowl, which represent the main reservoir and vector of spread over long distances. This means that the pressure on farms does not disappear; on the contrary, it is precisely the existence of this natural reserve that explains why biosecurity can never be treated as a seasonal measure or as a bureaucratic formality. In commercial farms, every rule, access control, changing equipment, disinfecting vehicles, limiting contact with wild animals, and constant monitoring of the staff are in place because the virus continues to exist. In this industry, success is not measured by the number of measures adopted, but by the fact that they work before the problem even arises. In effective poultry farming, biosecurity is not a reaction to the appearance of avian influenza; it is the reason why responsible commercial farms never have to face it.

The EFSA report also provides a clear example of how important this continuous surveillance is. For the first time in the European Union, the G5.5 strain of the H9N2 virus was identified at seven farms in Hungary. This strain was previously associated with sporadic cases of human infection in the Middle East and West Africa. The discovery does not change the current assessment of the risk to the population, but it does lead EFSA and ECDC to explicitly recommend that Member States intensify the monitoring of this variant. The report shows that early identification of new viral variants is essential for rapid adaptation of surveillance and prevention measures before they pose a risk to commercial stocks.

This is an example of how the European surveillance system works: it does not only react to outbreaks, but continuously monitors the evolution of viruses, even when their impact is low. The same approach is applied in public health monitoring. During the analyzed period, 19 human cases of avian influenza were reported worldwide, three of which were fatal, in Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Italy, China, and Taiwan. The majority of infected individuals had direct contact with birds or contaminated environments, and so far no sustained transmission from person to person has been documented. This is one of the reasons why EFSA and ECDC maintain the risk assessment as low for the general population in the European Union and the European Economic Area, but consider it low to moderate for people exposed professionally, such as farm workers, veterinarians, or personnel involved in managing outbreaks.

From the outside, all these measures may seem invisible: the consumer only sees the product on the shelf and the experts’ conclusion that the risk to public health remains low. However, behind this conclusion lies a continuous effort by the authorities and the commercial farms responsible to continuously monitor, report, perform laboratory analyses, and always adhere to the strictest biosecurity standards. In other words, the fact that the risk to consumers is low does not reflect the absence of the virus, but the efficiency of a system built specifically to detect and control it before it affects the food chain.

An important lesson from the EFSA report is that in food safety, the good news does not appear because the risks have disappeared, but because they are constantly being sought out, quickly identified and managed before they become a threat. And in a context where the virus continues to circulate in wildlife, the most effective measure remains the same as always: biosecurity applied consistently, as it should be, every day, without exceptions.

 

Read the Report: EFSA (European Food Safety Authority), ECDC (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), EURL (European Union Reference Laboratory for Avian Influenza), Buczkowski, H., Ducatez, M., Fusaro, A., Gonzalez, J. L., Kuiken, T., Mirinavičiūtė, G., Ståhl, K., Staubach, S., Svartström, O., Terregino, C., Willgert, K., Alarcón, A., & Kohnle, L. (2026). Avian influenza overview March–May 2026. EFSA Journal, 24(7), e10196, https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2026.10196, 08.07.2026, available online: https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2903/j.efsa.2026.10196 

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